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By Peter Della Penna (on Twitter)
In June, the ICC released its Development Program Census Results
for the 95 Associate and Affiliate countries for 2011 and also included
participation figures for each country dating back as far as 10 years
for most of the 95. The census charts each country’s participation level
in terms of increase or decrease in the number of players, number of
coaches and number of umpires as well as the increase or decrease in the
number of facilities. It doesn’t take long to realize when scanning
through the figures the importance youth participation numbers has on
the overall success of many nations.
More
often than not, countries with strong youth participation figures,
especially countries whose youth participation figures strongly
outnumber the adult participation figures, have experienced a
significant amount of success or improved results over the timespan of
the census compared to those countries where adult participation
outweighs youth participation.
For example, Ireland had 4515 adult players and 3540 youth players in
2007, the year they pulled off a massive upset victory over Pakistan to
advance past the group stage of the World Cup in the West Indies. A
year later, youth participation levels had gone up 57% to 5565,
eclipsing the adult figures of 5340. Through 2011, the youth numbers had
grown to 8145. Seeing the impact the win over Pakistan had percentage
wise from 2007-2011 and bearing in mind Ireland pulled off an even
bigger upset in 2011 over England at the last World Cup, Ireland could
have 15,000 or more youth players by 2015.
Nepal’s successes at U-19 World Cups in the last decade have not only
contributed to success at the senior level but have resulted in an
uptick in youth and overall participation numbers. In 2002, Nepal’s
adult participation numbers were at 3240 and their youth numbers were at
1080. By 2011, the adult figures have grown to 7500, but more
impressively the youth figures have multiplied more than eight-fold to
9285.
Other countries like Namibia may have small participation numbers
overall, but their numbers are still skewed heavily in favor of youth
percentage and ratio wise. In 2004, Namibia had 465 adults and 1185
registered youth players. In 2011, those figures were 765 and 2405
respectively.
In 2004, when USA participated in the Champions Trophy in England,
the country had 12,675 adult players. Based on the other aforementioned
countries and figures, one would assume that USA would have had several
thousand youth players at the very least and by 2011 conceivably should
have had double or triple the amount of youth players, well into the
tens of thousands.
Unfortunately, neither is the case. In 2004, USA had 960 registered
youth players. After reaching a high of 1020 registered youth players in
2007, USA experienced a 41% drop to 600 in 2010. In 2011, USA’s adult
participation numbers were 16,680, a 32% increase from the year they
played in the Champions Trophy. Meanwhile, USA reported 750 youth
players registered in 2011, a 28% drop in the same time span that the
adult figures went in almost the exact opposite direction.
So in a country of more than 300 million people, there are only 750
registered youth players. That includes roughly 400 players
participating in the New York City Public Schools Athletic League.
Outside of New York City, there are less than 400 youth players playing
in organized cricket competitions nationwide. If you don’t believe that,
keep in mind that the Central West Region failed to send a squad to the
USACA U-15 National Tournament in 2010 and 2011. That’s right, the
Central West is a region that has three thriving adult leagues in Texas
with a combined 85 teams – that’s more than 1000 adult players in Texas –
and one league in Colorado and had four players named in the USA senior
team for 2012 ICC WCL Division Four in Malaysia but could not come up
with 11 players aged 15 and under to participate in a national
tournament.
Most
shocking is the overall ratio disparity of adults to youth cricketers
in the USA. While most top tier Associate countries are hovering around
1:1, 2:1 or 3:1 ratios in favor of youth to adult players, USA has 22.24
adult players for every one youth player. As evidenced by the Central
West, some regions have a disparity of somewhere in the neighborhood of
100 adult players to one youth player.
Image (left) - Long Island City celebrates winning the 2012
NY PSAL championship. When will other cities follow the lead of New York
and establish their own youth leagues? [Courtesy: Peter Della
Penna/DreamCricket.com]
In April, USACA vice president Michael Gale posted a PowerPoint
presentation on the USACA web site advocating for an increase in youth
participation levels to “2000 active U-19 youth players in order to pick
up 5% that could be competitive on a world stage.” Top 5% from any
figure is just scratching the surface and would include a lot of
mediocre talent by international standards, but with a sample pool as
small as 2000 that would especially be the case.
Take a look at other pro sports in the USA and less than 1% of all
athletes participating from high school on up ever truly make it to an
elite level. At the moment, there are 120 NCAA Division One/FBS college
football programs with a maximum of 85 full scholarship players allowed
on each roster, not including walk-ons. There are hundreds of thousands
of high school football players across America, but only 10,200 players
get a full scholarship to play Division One college football in any
given season. From this already highly select group of players, only 253
became NFL draft picks in 2012. That’s just 2.48% of super elite
athletes from an already elite group who may get drafted to play
professionally.
College basketball is just as popular if not more so at the high
school level especially with the rise of AAU teams traveling and playing
outside of the high school season. There are currently 344 NCAA
Division One men’s basketball programs and each program can have 13
players on full scholarship not including walk-ons. This means that of
the hundreds of thousands of high school basketball players playing
nationwide, only 4472 possessed an NCAA basketball scholarship in 2012.
Then from this group of 4472 scholarship players, there were just 60
draft picks made by NBA teams in 2012 or 1.34% of NCAA players. Nine
players who were from overseas and did not play NCAA basketball were
drafted in 2012. So there were actually only 51 NCAA basketball players
out of 4472 who were drafted, 1.14% of the already elite pool.
Going back to that figure of registered junior players in the USA,
750, and applying the 1% theory to it, that means that there are really
only 7 or 8 players at the U-19 level in the country who could
potentially be considered elite. On the evidence of the performances of
the USA U-18 team in Florida last month, which should also supply the
core of the USA U-19 team in 2013, saying that this country had 7 or 8
elite players in that team would be extremely optimistic. The same would
be true of the squad that went to the 2011 ICC U-19 World Cup Qualifier
in Ireland.
In
reality, the USA U-18 squad in Florida was Steven Taylor, Ryan Persaud
and everyone else. USA arguably had just two elite players out of 750
that exist in this country. Multiply 750 by seven and you get 5250.
That’s how many registered youth players USA needs nationwide before
they can realistically find 14 players just to be competitive on an
elite level to represent a junior national team.
Image (right) - Steven Taylor is one of the USA's few elite age
group cricketers. Overall participation figures need to rise in order to
unearth more talent like him. [Courtesy: Peter Della
Penna/DreamCricket.com]
Double that figure to get to 10,500 and that’s how many youth
cricketers this country would need for the cream of the crop to be
competing with each other for the right to make it into the final 14 of a
youth national team. Only then will this country really begin to make
strides not only at the youth level, but as a by-product the senior
men’s level.
The ICC census data should be a wake-up call to all cricket
administrators to get their priorities straight and put an immediate
focus on youth development. Many fans and stakeholders like to place all
of the blame on USACA for the historically negligent approach to youth
development and USACA is a very convenient target. However, much of the
fault lies directly with the clubs, leagues and administrators at the
local level. In the five seasons since it debuted in 2008, the NY PSAL
high school cricket league has mushroomed from 14 to 26 teams and is
considered a tremendous success, a model success. Yet, no other city has
copied that model and New York City remains the only city in America
with a high school cricket league.
While most clubs in overseas leagues have an U-11, and U-13, U-15,
U-17 and an U-19 squad as part of the overall club structure, the vast
majority of “clubs” in the USA are just that in name only. The majority
of leagues in this country don’t have a youth team, let alone each
individual club within the league.
In reality, the vast majority of “cricket clubs” in the USA are a
solitary team comprised of 13 or 14 guys in their mid 30s to late 40s
with no desire to develop a formal club structure, which would mean
building a relationship with the local community by inviting local
residents, - boys, girls and adults – to tryout, participate and build
up a membership base to the point that the municipality could designate a
proper ground specifically for cricket and not to be shared with
baseball, soccer or anything else.
It’s up to the clubs and leagues to develop these programs and
structures themselves because if they wait for help from USACA, this
country will still be hovering between 750 and 1000 junior players in
the year 2020. The onus is on the administrators at the local level to
help effect change. Progress is being made by the USYCA to help increase
youth participation numbers, but a bridge must be built from the kids
who are being introduced to the game in school programs to connect with
youth leagues or youth teams within adult amateur clubs and leagues.
The Michael Gale target of 2,000 U-19 youth players will not be
enough to field a truly competitive squad at the international level.
USA must grow the total to 10,000 youth players over the next 10 years
from which the top 1% will be truly competitive at an elite level
suitable for international cricket tournaments. Otherwise, the USA will
continue to be stuck in limbo while other Associate and Affiliate
countries leave America in their wake.